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The current global trade war concern first emerged 18 months ago; as recent as May it was generally believed a US/China trade deal could be negotiated. That deal on paper was reportedly 80% complete. At the same time, some trade progress occurred elsewhere (USMCA/NAFTA 2.0), but the US/China negotiations are unfinished and appear virtually collapsed. […]
It was another roller-coaster ride of a week; one in which the most recent of market stress seemed to be attempting to mend. In fact, until Friday, the market was up a little more than 1% and the VIX, a widely watched measure of market volatility was beginning to appear calm. Investors appeared optimistic that […]
If you watch the news today, it is almost certain you will learn the yield curve inverted (the 2yr/10yr spread) this morning for the first time since 2007. This will probably result in a challenging market experience today (and perhaps days ahead). You will also hear inversion – a condition where short term interest rates […]
Fed Behind The Curve As Trade Deal Appears Increasingly Unlikely and Yield Curve Continues to Flatten – Week Ended 8/9
Almost as quick as the calendar flipped to August, the market’s backdrop and investor sentiment was altered. Just two weeks ago, the Fed made good on months of more dovish rhetoric by cutting its target for short-term interest rates by a quarter of one percent (25 bps). While some watchers were pining for a more […]