Agitation Overdone – Commentary for March

Early in February the S&P500 and other indexes fell into correction territory.  Recall, a correction in the financial markets is a 10% or greater decline from recent highs, which occurred on January 26th.  Pullbacks, even in strong uptrends, are historically considered normal.  But this was the first drawdown of -5% or more in 404 trading days running since February 11, 2016.  Is the correction overdone?  Perhaps, but it was probably overdue.  Market agitation was brought on by 3 occurrences – feelings that valuation was stretched; a big jump in volatility; and uncertainty about inflation (more below).  Also, many investors remain concerned that valuations are stretched, and they became shocked by increased volatility following 23 months of calm and steadily rising stock prices.

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