A “Tarrif-fying” Ride | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: May 2025 Commentary

Game theory is the study of strategic interactions between individuals or groups.  It provides mathematical models to analyze competition, cooperation, negotiation, and conflicts. Game theory is also a useful framework for predicting behaviors of individuals where everyone is trying to outsmart each other.  For example: In blackjack, players share a common opponent (the dealer) but make individual decisions.  Inexperienced players often make suboptimal choices, such as flipping another card despite a mathematically strong hand.  These “sub-optimal” decisions alter card flow for all the other players which can be frustrating.  Dating back to President Trump’s first term, game theory is often cited when trying to explain or understand his unpredictable, sharp departures from established norms.

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If You Don’t Know, Don’t Shoot! | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: Mar 2025 Commentary

Did you know that the U.S. unfortunately experiences nearly 1,000 hunting-related injuries annually? Most are not fatal (thankfully), but 80% stem from human error. The golden rule of hunting safety is simple: if you can’t identify your target, don’t shoot. This principle feels remarkably relevant to today’s investing and economic landscape.

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Press Pause | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: Feb 2025 Commentary

Life seems to move at such a fast pace!  Wouldn’t it be great if there was a button to just stop everything for a moment or two?  The ability to pause was first invented in the 1960s for reel-to-reel tape decks, but it wasn’t until the advent of VCRs and DVRs when consumers became more familiar with it.

“Press Pause” seems a fitting theme for January from multiple perspectives.  The Fed paused it’s recent interest rate cutting campaign and Mag-7 ascent paused following Chinese competition emergence in the red-hot Artificial Intelligence space.  The news cycle was also dizzying, including the inauguration of a new President and a whirlwind of executive orders affecting various policies.  Tariffs, although widely anticipated with the new administration, became reality at month-end and introduce one more uncertainty as we enter February (tariffs on both Canada and Mexico were unveiled, but quickly paused as well – more on that topic later).

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 “Comedian”  | Steve Henderly, CFA | Nvest Wealth Strategies®

Printer Friendly PDF: Dec 2024 Commentary

What are some of the most famous works of art that come to mind? The Mona Lisa, Van Gogh’s Starry Night, or perhaps a masterpiece by Picasso or Monet? We often hear of art fetching astronomical sums at auction.  Yet the question of what constitutes “art” or how the monetary value is derived can be a topic of fierce debate.  While value of art may be in the eye of the beholder, most people would not consider a banana duct-taped to a wall as art. The art world was recently stunned when such a piece, aptly named “Comedian”, sold for an eye-watering $6.2 million – accompanied by a certificate of authenticity and instructions for display. In a world where absurdities abound (Bitcoin trading near $100,000 comes to mind), one might wonder: can we really claim monetary policy is too tight when such frivolities command such staggering sums? Does the Fed truly need to consider further rate cuts, or would a pause be more appropriate?

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One and Done? | Steve Henderly, CFA | Nvest Wealth Strategies®

Printer Friendly PDF: Nov 2024 Commentary

Twenty years ago, an influx of dominant high school basketball players caused controversy among the NBA and its players union, and in 2005 the “one-and-done” rule was implemented.  The rule stipulated players coming out of high school must spend at last one year at the collegiate level or alternate organization to better prepare for the physical and mental demands of the NBA.  While “one-and-done” is generally associated with athletes fixated on going pro, a dramatic reversal higher in interest rates last month leaves some already questioning whether the Fed’s recent pivot to rate cuts will be “one-and-done” after the FOMC meeting this week.

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Air Pockets | Steve Henderly, CFA | Nvest Wealth Strategies®

Printer Friendly PDF: Sept 2024 Commentary

One of the biggest thrills for roller coaster aficionados is the sensation of free-fall in their stomach as the train makes its way over the edge of the first drop.  Perhaps you’ve experienced a similar sensation during a flight where there was turbulence or an air pocket.  If it was unexpected, it probably caused brief anxiety.  Earlier this year, a flight from London to Singapore was going smoothly until the plane experienced a sudden and dramatic change in altitude, dropping nearly 200 feet in less than 5 seconds.  Panic probably best describes what passengers felt.  A drop like that can throw anyone not securely in a seat belt into the  ceiling and then quickly crash back down; more than half of the flight’s passengers required medical treatment as a result of this unexpected air pocket.

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