Groundhog in July | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: August 2026 Commentary

Most are familiar with the movie Groundhog Day. In the film, Bill Murray’s character, Phil, is doomed to repeat the same day over and over.  Every morning he wakes up to Sonny & Cher’s “I Got You Babe”, the same weather report, the same conversations, and the same problems. Entering the month, it seemed many of the biggest worries facing investors were beginning to fade into the background, only to return simultaneously and in full. In fact, while trying to think of a clever title for this month’s commentary, I realized several we used in recent months could easily be recycled and would be just as fitting today.  Instead of celebrating “Christmas in July”, the market felt a bit like celebrating “Groundhog in July”.

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Mixed Signals in a Market at New Highs | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: June 2026 Commentary

Whether red hot or ice cold, ever notice how the stock market rarely feels comfortable?  Sometimes it falls sharply with little warning. Other times it climbs relentlessly despite numerous worrisome headlines.  The S&P 500 added eleven new record highs in May. The market hit a low on March 30 following the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz closure.  In the 42 trading days since this most recent low, the S&P 500 index advanced 18%!  That places the rebound among the strongest short-term rallies since 1950.  Yet consumer confidence is sitting at/near the lowest levels ever recorded due to a war that is not resolved, elevated oil prices, and rising interest rates due to building inflationary pressures.  How can both be true?  How can investors celebrate while consumers are deeply concerned?  Two questions keep surfacing in the financial press and conversations with clients:

(1) Is this another late-1990s technology bubble destined to burst?

(2) Is the market’s strength justified based on a genuine productivity revolution made possible by adoption of AI and robotics? To borrow from Buzz Lightyear, can markets go “to infinity and beyond”?

We believe the honest answer lies somewhere in between: it’s neither as frightening as the first scenario nor as effortless as the second. Understanding that distinction matters.

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Rising Oil, Rising Markets – Now What? | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: May 2026 Commentary

It’s no secret that high oil prices are generally a drag on the economy and stock market.  We witnessed the negative relationship in March as oil spiked and stocks fell with the onset and uncertainty of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  But… scratch that, April Fools!  Beginning in April, oil prices didn’t matter.  Yes, an apparent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was welcome news and provides hope the worst of the conflict is over.  But shipping through the Strait remains blocked and oil/gasoline prices ended April near their highest levels in four years.  Oil prices up, stocks…up?!?  As we move into a new month, does the backdrop suggest one should “sell in May and go away”?

Stocks raced back to pre-war levels and beyond in April with the S&P 500 establishing 8 new record highs during the month.  In fact, the S&P 500 experienced its best month since the 2020 covid pandemic rebound with a gain of +10.5%.  Wow!

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Turn! Turn! Turn! | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: March 2026 Commentary

Clients may recall our commentary a few years ago where we referenced this 1965 #1 hit song title by The Byrds.  In March 2022, we were in the early innings of the most aggressive tightening of Fed monetary policy in modern history to combat inflation.   The song is notable for being one of the few pop hits whose lyrics are drawn almost entirely from biblical scripture (Ecclesiastes 3:1-8).  The song was also emblematic of the era’s mix of spiritual reflection and subtle anti-war sentiment, as well as symbolizing cycles of change, generational transition, and the hope that turbulent times would give way to renewal.

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Rotation | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: Feb 2026 Commentary

Ever experience de-ja-vu?  Similar to much of this past year, 2026 kicked off with the markets struggling to digest a constant barrage of headlines, causing the proverbial “drinking from a firehose” feeling.  Geopolitical escalation (Venezuela, Greenland, Iran), fresh tariff threats, pressure on the Federal Reserve, talk of government intervention in housing and credit markets, renewed debates around price controls and capital allocation… even another (brief) Government shutdown.  All in January… exhausting!

For investors, it is not just the speed of policy announcements, but their tone. Many of the initiatives and proposals are distinctly populist and, in several cases, counter to traditional free-market and capitalist principles. Calls to cap interest rates, restrict certain investors from purchasing assets, pressure independent institutions, or directly intervene in private markets stand in contrast to the long-held assumption that U.S. policy favors deregulation, free-market pricing, and institutional independence. While headlines dominate attention, the more important story is investor response: rotation, not retreat.Continue reading→

   Trading Places | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: December 2025 Commentary

Happy Thanksgiving!  Ready or not, another holiday season is upon us.  ‘Tis the season for gathering with family and friends, eating too much food, and if your schedule permits, the consumption of a few classic Christmas movies.  Trading Places (1983), a comedy starring Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, may not be the first movie that comes to mind, but it is set during the Christmas season (and really funny, but not kid friendly!).  Trading Places is a comedy built around a cruel social experiment conducted by the wealthy Duke brothers, who wagered  they can swap the lives of two men to prove whether success is a product of nature or nurture. Louis Winthorpe III, a privileged, elitist commodities broker, is framed for crimes to destroy his life, while Billy Ray Valentine, a street hustler struggling to get by, is elevated into Winthorpe’s job, home, and social circle. As the two men adapt to their reversed circumstances, they eventually uncover the scheme, team up, and turn the tables on the Dukes by manipulating the commodity market; outsmarting the system that manipulated them and destroying the Duke brothers’ empire.

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A Complete Game | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: November 2025 Commentary

Scottie Scheffler’s recent run of dominance on the PGA Tour offers a lesson for investors. His average driving distance is 303 yards!  As impressive as that sounds to mortal golfers like ourselves, you might be surprised to learn that stat ranks him 70th among his professional peers!  While long, powerful drives grab headlines, it’s the rest of his game that sets Scottie apart. It’s his approach shots, short game, and putting which keeps him near or at the top of leaderboard. Monster drives are flashy, but to win tournaments, a more balanced and complete game is usually required.  The same could be said of today’s markets. The “Mag 7” continue to drive the major index averages, while the rest of clubs in the “golf bag” – small caps, cyclicals, and international stocks – are struggling to keep pace. Like a golfer relying too heavily on one club, the market’s performance is presently being carried by only the long hitters.

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