All Gas, No Brakes | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: September 2025 Commentary

Sports teams love slogans – some memorable, some regrettable. One of the more overused in recent years is the phrase “All Gas, No Brakes”.  Catchy yes, but good advice?  Probably not.  “All Gas, No Brakes” seems apt for describing markets since mid-April: surging forward with little hesitation, fueled by optimism around rate cuts, artificial intelligence, and resilient corporate earnings. The trouble is, cars – and markets – need brakes. Without brakes, even the best things can become unstable.  With the return of football and other fall activities, it seems forgivable to again draw analogies between sports and investing.

Continue reading→

Christmas in July | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: August 2025 Commentary

Most think of Christmas as a December holiday, but the idea of “Christmas in July” dates back to the 1930s. Summer camps and resorts in the U.S. began celebrating the holiday in July to capture some of the magic of the season during the warmer months, and the idea spread as a lighthearted excuse for festivities and gift-giving well outside the traditional Christmas season.  Today, many retailers run black Friday-like sales events, which some consumers look forward to with much anticipation.  Over the last month, investors received their own version of “Christmas in July,” as several long-standing policy uncertainties finally delivered “gifts” in the form of new all-time highs for many US market indexes.  Since the start of the year, tariffs, trade policy, taxes, and government spending weighed heavy on the markets.  July delivered unexpected joy and excitement.Continue reading→

Kindness of Strangers | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: June 2025 Commentary

The phrase “kindness of strangers” originates from Tennessee Williams’ Pulitzer Price-winning play, A Streetcar Named Desire, which was first performed in 1947.  Character Blanche DuBois utters the phrase as she’s taken away to a mental institution following the loss of her home and reputation, revealing her vulnerability and reliance on others for emotional support and her detachment from reality.  Is the US government and our Treasury similarly detached from reality when it comes to how it spends, overly reliant on the kindness of strangers?  What if that kindness “dries up” and foreign investors and/or governments shun US debt and trade?

Continue reading→

A “Tarrif-fying” Ride | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: May 2025 Commentary

Game theory is the study of strategic interactions between individuals or groups.  It provides mathematical models to analyze competition, cooperation, negotiation, and conflicts. Game theory is also a useful framework for predicting behaviors of individuals where everyone is trying to outsmart each other.  For example: In blackjack, players share a common opponent (the dealer) but make individual decisions.  Inexperienced players often make suboptimal choices, such as flipping another card despite a mathematically strong hand.  These “sub-optimal” decisions alter card flow for all the other players which can be frustrating.  Dating back to President Trump’s first term, game theory is often cited when trying to explain or understand his unpredictable, sharp departures from established norms.

Continue reading→

If You Don’t Know, Don’t Shoot! | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: Mar 2025 Commentary

Did you know that the U.S. unfortunately experiences nearly 1,000 hunting-related injuries annually? Most are not fatal (thankfully), but 80% stem from human error. The golden rule of hunting safety is simple: if you can’t identify your target, don’t shoot. This principle feels remarkably relevant to today’s investing and economic landscape.

Continue reading→

Press Pause | Steve Henderly, CFA

Printer Friendly PDF: Feb 2025 Commentary

Life seems to move at such a fast pace!  Wouldn’t it be great if there was a button to just stop everything for a moment or two?  The ability to pause was first invented in the 1960s for reel-to-reel tape decks, but it wasn’t until the advent of VCRs and DVRs when consumers became more familiar with it.

“Press Pause” seems a fitting theme for January from multiple perspectives.  The Fed paused it’s recent interest rate cutting campaign and Mag-7 ascent paused following Chinese competition emergence in the red-hot Artificial Intelligence space.  The news cycle was also dizzying, including the inauguration of a new President and a whirlwind of executive orders affecting various policies.  Tariffs, although widely anticipated with the new administration, became reality at month-end and introduce one more uncertainty as we enter February (tariffs on both Canada and Mexico were unveiled, but quickly paused as well – more on that topic later).

Continue reading→

 “Comedian”  | Steve Henderly, CFA | Nvest Wealth Strategies®

Printer Friendly PDF: Dec 2024 Commentary

What are some of the most famous works of art that come to mind? The Mona Lisa, Van Gogh’s Starry Night, or perhaps a masterpiece by Picasso or Monet? We often hear of art fetching astronomical sums at auction.  Yet the question of what constitutes “art” or how the monetary value is derived can be a topic of fierce debate.  While value of art may be in the eye of the beholder, most people would not consider a banana duct-taped to a wall as art. The art world was recently stunned when such a piece, aptly named “Comedian”, sold for an eye-watering $6.2 million – accompanied by a certificate of authenticity and instructions for display. In a world where absurdities abound (Bitcoin trading near $100,000 comes to mind), one might wonder: can we really claim monetary policy is too tight when such frivolities command such staggering sums? Does the Fed truly need to consider further rate cuts, or would a pause be more appropriate?

Continue reading→