As we move into the 2nd half of 2020, we are struck by how much is changed from just 6 months ago. A global health crisis/pandemic thrust the world into what is arguably the deepest and sharpest economic recession in a generation’s memory. If that were not enough, the backdrop of acute economic pain combined with several most unfortunate societal tragedies to create a degree of social unrest not felt so acutely in many years.
Despite these dynamics, the 2nd quarter provided strong recovery for global financial markets. Most attribute this almost unbelievable market rebound to a forceful fiscal and economic policy response by governments globally. In this quarter’s newsletter (below), you’ll find 3 brief articles. The first, entitled “65 Days… Now What?”, places the strength of the stock market since the March 23 low in historical context and reviews the actions we pursued early in the 2Q to position portfolios for economic recovery; “Offense Still on the Field” explains how the process of reopening the economy will remain complex amid lingering fallout from the reality of covid-19. Lastly, “True vs. True? And Truth!” examines the Great Depression era (1930’s) and the series of what are now considered consecutive policy mistakes that likely kept both the economy and financial markets impaired longer than if different actions were pursued. Studying these is relevant to the path forward.